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  4. 2025
HOU logo

Houston Texans

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-5
nfelo Rating
156110th
Point Diff / Game
+5.87th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1355th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAR logo
LAR@
L
09-14
-5
+3
L
-7
2
TB logo
TB
L
19-20
-1
-2.5
L
-6
3
JAX logo
JAX@
L
10-17
-7
+1.5
L
-9
4
TEN logo
TEN
W
26-00
+26
-7.5
W
18
5
BAL logo
BAL@
W
44-10
+34
-2.5
W
85
6BYE WEEK
7
SEA logo
SEA@
L
19-27
-8
+3
L
-23
8
SF logo
SF
W
26-15
+11
-2.5
W
18
9
DEN logo
DEN
L
15-18
-3
-2
L
-52
10
JAX logo
JAX
W
36-29
+7
-1
W
10
11
TEN logo
TEN@
W
16-13
+3
-5.5
L
-24
12
BUF logo
BUF
W
23-19
+4
+5.5
W
27
13
IND logo
IND@
W
20-16
+4
+3
W
5
14
KC logo
KC@
W
20-10
+10
+4.5
W
16
15
ARI logo
ARI
12/14
-
-9.5
-
-
16
OAK logo
OAK
12/21
-
-
-
17
LAC logo
LAC@
12/28
-
-
-
18
IND logo
IND
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
24th
EPA / Pass
+0.02
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
24th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.16
2nd
EPA / Pass
-0.24
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.05
12th
Sack EPA
-4.04
19th
Turnover EPA
-2.79
30th
Point Differential
+5.8
7th
Points For
21.8
20th
Points Against
16.0
1st
Total Yards
322.4
20th
Passing Yards
180.5
17th
Rushing Yards
105.7
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
266.6
1st
Passing Allowed
172.3
11th
Rushing Allowed
94.3
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
24th
4th Down
58%
15th
Red Zone
44%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
33%
3rd
4th Down
47%
7th
Red Zone
58%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
4th
Created
1.6
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
9th
Created
1.2
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
5th
Created
0.5
15th