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  4. 2011
IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
2-14
nfelo Rating
137529th
Point Diff / Game
-11.730th
Net EPA / Play
-0.20830th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
L
07-34
-27
+9
L
-64
2
CLE logo
CLE
L
19-27
-8
+1.5
L
-40
3
PIT logo
PIT
L
20-23
-3
+11
W
-46
4
TB logo
TB@
L
17-24
-7
+10
W
12
5
KC logo
KC
L
24-28
-4
-1.5
L
1
6
CIN logo
CIN@
L
17-27
-10
+4.5
L
5
7
NO logo
NO@
L
07-62
-55
+13.5
L
-16
8
TEN logo
TEN@
L
10-27
-17
+7.5
L
-10
9
ATL logo
ATL
L
07-31
-24
+7
L
-20
10
JAX logo
JAX
L
03-17
-14
+3
L
-29
11BYE WEEK
12
CAR logo
CAR
L
19-27
-8
+3.5
L
21
13
NE logo
NE@
L
24-31
-7
+20.5
W
23
14
BAL logo
BAL@
L
10-24
-14
+16
W
-6
15
TEN logo
TEN
W
27-13
+14
+6.5
W
11
16
HOU logo
HOU
W
19-16
+3
+7
W
11
17
JAX logo
JAX@
L
13-19
-6
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.16
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.16
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
30th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
20th
Sack EPA
-4.74
26th
Turnover EPA
-8.20
5th
Point Differential
-11.7
30th
Points For
15.2
28th
Points Against
26.9
28th
Total Yards
286.8
30th
Passing Yards
164.8
27th
Rushing Yards
99.6
26th
Total Yards Allowed
370.9
24th
Passing Allowed
210.5
20th
Rushing Allowed
143.9
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
23rd
4th Down
36%
20th
Red Zone
42%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
31st
4th Down
50%
23rd
Red Zone
61%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
23rd
Created
1.1
31st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
13th
Created
0.5
31st

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
31st
Created
0.6
18th