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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-6
nfelo Rating
144222nd
Point Diff / Game
-2.621st
Net EPA / Play
-0.04921st

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
L
21-41
-20
+10
L
-21
2
MIN logo
MIN
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
2
3
JAX logo
JAX
L
17-22
-5
-3
L
-2
4BYE WEEK
5
GB logo
GB
W
30-27
+3
+6.5
W
11
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
09-35
-26
+3.5
L
-22
7
CLE logo
CLE
W
17-13
+4
-1
W
3
8
TEN logo
TEN@
W
19-13
+6
+3
W
13
9
MIA logo
MIA
W
23-20
+3
+2.5
W
17
10
JAX logo
JAX@
W
27-10
+17
-3
W
29
11
NE logo
NE@
L
24-59
-35
+10
L
-15
12
BUF logo
BUF
W
20-13
+7
-2
W
3
13
DET logo
DET@
W
35-33
+2
+7
W
8
14
TEN logo
TEN
W
27-23
+4
-3.5
W
-15
15
HOU logo
HOU@
L
17-29
-12
+10.5
L
-3
16
KC logo
KC@
W
20-13
+7
-5
W
16
17
HOU logo
HOU
W
28-16
+12
+6.5
W
12
18
BAL logo
BAL@
L
09-24
-15
+7.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.00
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
11th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.07
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.13
27th
EPA / Rush
+0.03
30th
Sack EPA
-4.43
26th
Turnover EPA
-7.75
7th
Point Differential
-2.6
21st
Points For
21.5
20th
Points Against
24.2
21st
Total Yards
365.9
10th
Passing Yards
240.1
5th
Rushing Yards
107.4
18th
Total Yards Allowed
378.1
27th
Passing Allowed
185.2
10th
Rushing Allowed
139.4
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
7th
4th Down
70%
2nd
Red Zone
51%
21st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
15th
4th Down
43%
9th
Red Zone
51%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
19th
Created
1.1
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
26th
Created
0.7
22nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
11th
Created
0.4
30th