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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
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  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-6
nfelo Rating
152714th
Point Diff / Game
+1.912th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03512th

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK
W
21-17
+4
-11
L
2
2
MIA logo
MIA
L
20-24
-4
-1.5
L
-13
3
SF logo
SF@
W
27-07
+20
+10.5
W
40
4
JAX logo
JAX@
W
37-03
+34
-9
W
36
5
SEA logo
SEA
W
34-28
+6
+3
W
11
6
LAC logo
LAC@
L
09-19
-10
-1.5
L
-12
7
DEN logo
DEN
W
39-33
+6
+6.5
W
17
8BYE WEEK
9
HOU logo
HOU@
W
27-24
+3
-1
W
-3
10
LAR logo
LAR
L
08-38
-30
-8
L
-42
11
TEN logo
TEN@
W
30-27
+3
-3
P
26
12
ARI logo
ARI@
L
11-40
-29
+3
L
-15
13
TEN logo
TEN
W
22-14
+8
-3.5
W
-9
14
CIN logo
CIN@
L
28-42
-14
+7
L
8
15
HOU logo
HOU
W
25-03
+22
-6
W
9
16
KC logo
KC@
W
23-07
+16
+7.5
W
12
17
JAX logo
JAX
W
30-10
+20
-11.5
W
10
18
KC logo
KC
W
45-44
+1
+1.5
W
3
19
NE logo
NE@
L
22-43
-21
+7.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.00
26th
Sack EPA
-3.65
8th
Turnover EPA
-5.12
22nd
Point Differential
+1.9
12th
Points For
25.4
10th
Points Against
23.5
14th
Total Yards
355.4
11th
Passing Yards
231.1
11th
Rushing Yards
106.2
21st
Total Yards Allowed
369.3
22nd
Passing Allowed
221.3
21st
Rushing Allowed
132.7
30th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
15th
4th Down
42%
22nd
Red Zone
57%
10th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
23rd
4th Down
48%
18th
Red Zone
63%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
6th
Created
1.5
18th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
17th
Created
0.8
21st

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
2nd
Created
0.7
14th