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IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
150913th
Point Diff / Game
-0.816th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01516th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC@
L
24-30
-6
+6
P
20
2
TEN logo
TEN@
W
19-17
+2
+3
W
8
3
ATL logo
ATL
W
27-24
+3
-1
W
7
4
OAK logo
OAK
L
24-31
-7
-5.5
L
-47
5
KC logo
KC@
W
19-13
+6
+11
W
10
6BYE WEEK
7
HOU logo
HOU
W
30-23
+7
-1.5
W
30
8
DEN logo
DEN
W
15-13
+2
-6
L
-19
9
PIT logo
PIT@
L
24-26
-2
+1
L
-26
10
MIA logo
MIA
L
12-16
-4
-11
L
18
11
JAX logo
JAX
W
33-13
+20
-2.5
W
52
12
HOU logo
HOU@
L
17-20
-3
+3.5
W
-5
13
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-31
-14
+1
L
-43
14
TB logo
TB@
L
35-38
-3
+3
P
1
15
NO logo
NO@
L
07-34
-27
+8.5
L
-23
16
CAR logo
CAR
W
38-06
+32
-7
W
28
17
JAX logo
JAX@
L
20-38
-18
-5.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
18th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
23rd
EPA / Rush
+0.04
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.11
8th
Sack EPA
-3.87
9th
Turnover EPA
-6.08
12th
Point Differential
-0.8
16th
Points For
22.6
16th
Points Against
23.3
18th
Total Yards
327.6
25th
Passing Yards
168.4
25th
Rushing Yards
133.3
5th
Total Yards Allowed
346.9
16th
Passing Allowed
210.8
18th
Rushing Allowed
97.9
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
12th
4th Down
58%
6th
Red Zone
65%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
27th
4th Down
42%
10th
Red Zone
52%
9th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
16th
Created
1.4
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
12th
Created
0.9
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
22nd
Created
0.5
20th