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  4. 2024
IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
145821st
Point Diff / Game
-2.921st
Net EPA / Play
-0.05821st

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU
L
27-29
-2
+3
W
7
2
GB logo
GB@
L
10-16
-6
-2.5
L
-14
3
CHI logo
CHI
W
21-16
+5
-2
W
-6
4
PIT logo
PIT
W
27-24
+3
+2
W
31
5
JAX logo
JAX@
L
34-37
-3
+3.5
W
9
6
TEN logo
TEN@
W
20-17
+3
+2.5
W
-31
7
MIA logo
MIA
W
16-10
+6
-3
W
2
8
HOU logo
HOU@
L
20-23
-3
+4.5
W
55
9
MIN logo
MIN@
L
13-21
-8
+6
L
-27
10
BUF logo
BUF
L
20-30
-10
+4.5
L
-48
11
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
28-27
+1
+4
W
27
12
DET logo
DET
L
06-24
-18
+7
L
-7
13
NE logo
NE@
W
25-24
+1
-2.5
L
0
14BYE WEEK
15
DEN logo
DEN@
L
13-31
-18
+4
L
-14
16
TEN logo
TEN
W
38-30
+8
-3.5
W
30
17
NYG logo
NYG@
L
33-45
-12
-7.5
L
-9
18
JAX logo
JAX
W
26-23
+3
-3.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.08
23rd
EPA / Rush
-0.04
17th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
5th
Sack EPA
-3.70
10th
Turnover EPA
-7.90
4th
Point Differential
-2.9
21st
Points For
22.2
16th
Points Against
25.1
24th
Total Yards
334.9
13th
Passing Yards
162.5
24th
Rushing Yards
137.2
8th
Total Yards Allowed
361.5
29th
Passing Allowed
176.8
12th
Rushing Allowed
131.9
23rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
19th
4th Down
61%
11th
Red Zone
54%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
29th
4th Down
52%
11th
Red Zone
61%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
29th
Created
1.5
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
29th
Created
0.9
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
22nd
Created
0.5
11th