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Jacksonville Jaguars

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-13
nfelo Rating
130231st
Point Diff / Game
-10.230th
Net EPA / Play
-0.18230th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PHI logo
PHI@
L
17-34
-17
+10
L
-3
2
WAS logo
WAS@
L
10-41
-31
+5
L
-25
3
IND logo
IND
L
17-44
-27
+6.5
L
45
4
LAC logo
LAC@
L
14-33
-19
+12.5
L
-6
5
PIT logo
PIT
L
09-17
-8
+6
L
-30
6
TEN logo
TEN@
L
14-16
-2
+4
W
4
7
CLE logo
CLE
W
24-06
+18
+4
W
3
8
MIA logo
MIA
L
13-27
-14
+7
L
-33
9
CIN logo
CIN@
L
23-33
-10
+10
P
25
10
DAL logo
DAL
L
17-31
-14
+7.5
L
-17
11BYE WEEK
12
IND logo
IND@
L
03-23
-20
+13.5
L
-26
13
NYG logo
NYG
W
25-24
+1
+3
W
4
14
HOU logo
HOU
L
13-27
-14
+6.5
L
-13
15
BAL logo
BAL@
L
12-20
-8
+14
W
10
16
TEN logo
TEN
W
21-13
+8
-4.5
W
14
17
HOU logo
HOU@
L
17-23
-6
+8.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.19
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.28
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.08
16th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.00
22nd
EPA / Pass
+0.05
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
18th
Sack EPA
-6.67
31st
Turnover EPA
-7.48
11th
Point Differential
-10.2
30th
Points For
15.6
32nd
Points Against
25.8
26th
Total Yards
289.8
31st
Passing Yards
187.7
21st
Rushing Yards
102.1
21st
Total Yards Allowed
370.8
26th
Passing Allowed
229.9
29th
Rushing Allowed
127.1
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
29th
4th Down
37%
25th
Red Zone
41%
31st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
23rd
4th Down
40%
9th
Red Zone
48%
9th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
22nd
Created
1.3
24th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
26th
Created
0.4
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
10th
Created
0.9
5th