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JAX logo

Jacksonville Jaguars

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-9
nfelo Rating
148017th
Point Diff / Game
+2.57th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0487th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
WAS logo
WAS@
L
22-28
-6
+3
L
-3
2
IND logo
IND
W
24-00
+24
+3
W
37
3
LAC logo
LAC@
W
38-10
+28
+7
W
48
4
PHI logo
PHI@
L
21-29
-8
+6.5
L
-7
5
HOU logo
HOU
L
06-13
-7
-7
L
-12
6
IND logo
IND@
L
27-34
-7
+2
L
4
7
NYG logo
NYG
L
17-23
-6
-3.5
L
-5
8
DEN logo
DEN
L
17-21
-4
-1
L
-12
9
OAK logo
OAK
W
27-20
+7
+2.5
W
16
10
KC logo
KC@
L
17-27
-10
+9.5
L
3
11BYE WEEK
12
BAL logo
BAL
W
28-27
+1
+3
W
17
13
DET logo
DET@
L
14-40
-26
+1.5
L
-19
14
TEN logo
TEN@
W
36-22
+14
+4
W
25
15
DAL logo
DAL
W
40-34
+6
+4
W
18
16
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
19-03
+16
+2.5
W
13
17
HOU logo
HOU@
W
31-03
+28
-3.5
W
4
18
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-16
+4
-6
L
-9
19
LAC logo
LAC
W
31-30
+1
+2
W
-0
20
KC logo
KC@
L
20-27
-7
+10
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
14th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
9th
Sack EPA
-3.29
6th
Turnover EPA
-5.99
7th
Point Differential
+2.5
7th
Points For
23.9
9th
Points Against
21.4
14th
Total Yards
359.2
7th
Passing Yards
144.5
29th
Rushing Yards
125.3
14th
Total Yards Allowed
352.4
24th
Passing Allowed
189.2
20th
Rushing Allowed
113.9
12th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
10th
4th Down
53%
12th
Red Zone
55%
17th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
29th
4th Down
32%
1st
Red Zone
62%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
27th
Created
1.5
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
13th
Created
0.7
18th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
30th
Created
0.7
3rd