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  4. 2023
JAX logo

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
152614th
Point Diff / Game
+0.413th
Net EPA / Play
+0.01214th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
IND logo
IND@
W
31-21
+10
-3.5
W
8
2
KC logo
KC
L
09-17
-8
+3
L
-22
3
HOU logo
HOU
L
17-37
-20
-7.5
L
-9
4
ATL logo
ATL
W
23-07
+16
-3.5
W
34
5
BUF logo
BUF@
W
25-20
+5
+5
W
21
6
IND logo
IND
W
37-20
+17
-4
W
4
7
NO logo
NO@
W
31-24
+7
+2.5
W
17
8
PIT logo
PIT@
W
20-10
+10
-2.5
W
30
9BYE WEEK
10
SF logo
SF
L
03-34
-31
+3
L
-46
11
TEN logo
TEN
W
34-14
+20
-6.5
W
22
12
HOU logo
HOU@
W
24-21
+3
-1
W
6
13
CIN logo
CIN
L
31-34
-3
-10
L
-5
14
CLE logo
CLE@
L
27-31
-4
+2.5
L
-20
15
BAL logo
BAL
L
07-23
-16
+4
L
-17
16
TB logo
TB@
L
12-30
-18
-2.5
L
-88
17
CAR logo
CAR
W
26-00
+26
-3.5
W
80
18
TEN logo
TEN@
L
20-28
-8
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.04
15th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
28th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
14th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
17th
Sack EPA
-4.99
21st
Turnover EPA
-7.12
7th
Point Differential
+0.4
13th
Points For
22.2
15th
Points Against
21.8
16th
Total Yards
339.9
12th
Passing Yards
175.1
22nd
Rushing Yards
97.1
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
342.9
19th
Passing Allowed
202.3
20th
Rushing Allowed
103.1
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
17th
4th Down
45%
27th
Red Zone
50%
21st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
8th
4th Down
51%
17th
Red Zone
56%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
28th
Created
1.5
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
19th
Created
0.9
12th

Fumbles

Lost
1.0
31st
Created
0.6
13th