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  4. 2024
JAX logo

Jacksonville Jaguars

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-13
nfelo Rating
139527th
Point Diff / Game
-6.825th
Net EPA / Play
-0.11825th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA@
L
17-20
-3
+3.5
W
-3
2
CLE logo
CLE
L
13-18
-5
-3
L
-12
3
BUF logo
BUF@
L
10-47
-37
+4
L
-21
4
HOU logo
HOU@
L
20-24
-4
+6.5
W
-1
5
IND logo
IND
W
37-34
+3
-3.5
L
13
6
CHI logo
CHI@
L
16-35
-19
-1
L
-12
7
NE logo
NE
W
32-16
+16
-7
W
21
8
GB logo
GB
L
27-30
-3
+3.5
W
1
9
PHI logo
PHI@
L
23-28
-5
+7.5
W
-66
10
MIN logo
MIN
L
07-12
-5
+7
W
-15
11
DET logo
DET@
L
06-52
-46
+13.5
L
58
12BYE WEEK
13
HOU logo
HOU
L
20-23
-3
+3.5
W
-90
14
TEN logo
TEN@
W
10-06
+4
+3
W
7
15
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
25-32
-7
+3.5
L
-6
16
OAK logo
OAK@
L
14-19
-5
+2.5
L
-10
17
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-13
+7
+1
W
14
18
IND logo
IND@
L
23-26
-3
+3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
18th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
16th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.13
31st
EPA / Pass
+0.21
32nd
EPA / Rush
+0.02
27th
Sack EPA
-3.57
7th
Turnover EPA
-4.00
23rd
Point Differential
-6.8
25th
Points For
18.8
26th
Points Against
25.6
27th
Total Yards
306.7
25th
Passing Yards
155.4
26th
Rushing Yards
101.7
25th
Total Yards Allowed
390.1
31st
Passing Allowed
215.4
26th
Rushing Allowed
132.6
24th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
22nd
4th Down
54%
20th
Red Zone
58%
13th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
26th
4th Down
58%
17th
Red Zone
59%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
23rd
Created
0.5
32nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
22nd
Created
0.4
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
17th
Created
0.2
31st