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  4. 2011
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
150319th
Point Diff / Game
-7.929th
Net EPA / Play
-0.13629th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BUF logo
BUF
L
07-41
-34
-4
L
-16
2
DET logo
DET@
L
03-48
-45
+8
L
-30
3
LAC logo
LAC@
L
17-20
-3
+14
W
14
4
MIN logo
MIN
W
22-17
+5
+3
W
4
5
IND logo
IND@
W
28-24
+4
+1.5
W
25
6BYE WEEK
7
OAK logo
OAK@
W
28-00
+28
+3.5
W
6
8
LAC logo
LAC
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
10
9
MIA logo
MIA
L
03-31
-28
-5.5
L
-17
10
DEN logo
DEN
L
10-17
-7
-3
L
-82
11
NE logo
NE@
L
03-34
-31
+17
L
-8
12
PIT logo
PIT
L
09-13
-4
+10.5
W
10
13
CHI logo
CHI@
W
10-03
+7
+8.5
W
18
14
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
10-37
-27
+10.5
L
98
15
GB logo
GB
W
19-14
+5
+11
W
15
16
OAK logo
OAK
L
13-16
-3
-3
L
-7
17
DEN logo
DEN@
W
07-03
+4
+2
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.13
29th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.14
31st
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.06
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
16th
Sack EPA
-3.35
11th
Turnover EPA
-6.53
14th
Point Differential
-7.9
29th
Points For
13.3
31st
Points Against
21.1
13th
Total Yards
310.8
27th
Passing Yards
145.0
28th
Rushing Yards
118.3
15th
Total Yards Allowed
333.4
11th
Passing Allowed
129.6
2nd
Rushing Allowed
132.0
26th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
20th
4th Down
41%
15th
Red Zone
33%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
5th
4th Down
44%
18th
Red Zone
55%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
18th
Created
1.8
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
23rd
Created
1.3
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.6
18th