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  4. 2024
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
17-3
nfelo Rating
16287th
Point Diff / Game
+2.611th
Net EPA / Play
+0.04711th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL
W
27-20
+7
-3
W
3
2
CIN logo
CIN
W
26-25
+1
-6.5
L
-17
3
ATL logo
ATL@
W
22-17
+5
-3
W
1
4
LAC logo
LAC@
W
17-10
+7
-7.5
L
16
5
NO logo
NO
W
26-13
+13
-5
W
8
6BYE WEEK
7
SF logo
SF@
W
28-18
+10
+2.5
W
3
8
OAK logo
OAK@
W
27-20
+7
-8.5
L
-2
9
TB logo
TB
W
30-24
+6
-9
L
-1
10
DEN logo
DEN
W
16-14
+2
-7.5
L
-14
11
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-30
-9
+2.5
L
-10
12
CAR logo
CAR@
W
30-27
+3
-11
L
-12
13
OAK logo
OAK
W
19-17
+2
-13.5
L
-16
14
LAC logo
LAC
W
19-17
+2
-4.5
L
-6
15
CLE logo
CLE@
W
21-07
+14
-4.5
W
8
16
HOU logo
HOU
W
27-19
+8
-3.5
W
12
17
PIT logo
PIT@
W
29-10
+19
-2
W
-78
18
DEN logo
DEN@
L
00-38
-38
+10.5
L
20
19BYE WEEK
20
HOU logo
HOU
W
23-14
+9
-8.5
W
24
21
BUF logo
BUF
W
32-29
+3
-1.5
W
34
22
PHI logo
PHI@
L
22-40
-18
-1.5
L
-44

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
10th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
12th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
16th
Sack EPA
-4.03
16th
Turnover EPA
-4.04
22nd
Point Differential
+2.6
11th
Points For
23.1
12th
Points Against
20.4
6th
Total Yards
321.6
19th
Passing Yards
184.4
19th
Rushing Yards
101.2
26th
Total Yards Allowed
325.4
9th
Passing Allowed
188.1
17th
Rushing Allowed
108.2
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
3rd
4th Down
67%
6th
Red Zone
55%
21st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
24th
4th Down
52%
9th
Red Zone
54%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
8th
Created
1.0
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
14th
Created
0.7
17th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
5th
Created
0.3
26th