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Miami Dolphins

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
147218th
Point Diff / Game
-1.118th
Net EPA / Play
-0.02719th

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CLE logo
CLE@
W
23-10
+13
+2.5
W
9
2
IND logo
IND@
W
24-20
+4
+1.5
W
20
3
ATL logo
ATL
W
27-23
+4
-3
W
2
4
NO logo
NO@
L
17-38
-21
+7
L
-11
5
BAL logo
BAL
L
23-26
-3
-2.5
L
-5
6BYE WEEK
7
BUF logo
BUF
L
21-23
-2
-6
L
-22
8
NE logo
NE@
L
17-27
-10
+6.5
L
-8
9
CIN logo
CIN
W
22-20
+2
+3
W
11
10
TB logo
TB@
L
19-22
-3
-2.5
L
-4
11
LAC logo
LAC
W
20-16
+4
+2.5
W
6
12
CAR logo
CAR
L
16-20
-4
+4.5
W
3
13
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
23-03
+20
21
14
PIT logo
PIT@
W
34-28
+6
+3
W
22
15
NE logo
NE
W
24-20
+4
-2.5
W
36
16
BUF logo
BUF@
L
00-19
-19
-63
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
07-20
-13
-7
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
20th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
28th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.00
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
11th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
27th
Sack EPA
-5.69
32nd
Turnover EPA
-5.28
21st
Point Differential
-1.1
18th
Points For
19.8
26th
Points Against
20.9
8th
Total Yards
312.9
27th
Passing Yards
210.2
18th
Rushing Yards
90.0
26th
Total Yards Allowed
359.4
20th
Passing Allowed
206.3
16th
Rushing Allowed
124.9
24th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
24th
4th Down
25%
31st
Red Zone
57%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
15th
4th Down
53%
21st
Red Zone
46%
5th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
19th
Created
1.4
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
20th
Created
1.1
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
9th
Created
0.3
30th