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Miami Dolphins

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
135429th
Point Diff / Game
-4.928th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08425th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
WAS logo
WAS@
W
17-10
+7
-4
W
16
2
JAX logo
JAX@
L
20-23
-3
-6
L
1
3
BUF logo
BUF
L
14-41
-27
-1
L
-38
4
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
14-27
-13
+2.5
L
-23
5BYE WEEK
6
TEN logo
TEN@
W
38-10
+28
+2.5
W
15
7
HOU logo
HOU
W
44-26
+18
-4.5
W
23
8
NE logo
NE@
L
07-36
-29
+8
L
-21
9
BUF logo
BUF@
L
17-33
-16
+4
L
-8
10
PHI logo
PHI@
W
20-19
+1
+6
W
8
11
DAL logo
DAL
L
14-24
-10
+2.5
L
-23
12
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
20-38
-18
+4.5
L
-14
13
BAL logo
BAL
W
15-13
+2
-3.5
L
-10
14
NYG logo
NYG
L
24-31
-7
+2
L
-39
15
LAC logo
LAC@
L
14-30
-16
+1
L
-11
16
IND logo
IND
L
12-18
-6
-2.5
L
-9
17
NE logo
NE
W
20-10
+10
+10
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.01
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
17th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
22nd
EPA / Pass
+0.16
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.08
21st
Sack EPA
-4.68
27th
Turnover EPA
-5.36
23rd
Point Differential
-4.9
28th
Points For
19.4
27th
Points Against
24.3
18th
Total Yards
331.9
27th
Passing Yards
238.3
8th
Rushing Yards
93.6
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
376.2
25th
Passing Allowed
180.9
5th
Rushing Allowed
126.2
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
31%
30th
4th Down
36%
28th
Red Zone
53%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
28th
4th Down
33%
5th
Red Zone
60%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
7th
Created
1.1
27th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
0.8
17th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
3rd
Created
0.3
31st