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Miami Dolphins

2017 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
139027th
Point Diff / Game
-7.029th
Net EPA / Play
-0.13129th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
2
LAC logo
LAC@
W
19-17
+2
+3.5
W
11
3
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
06-20
-14
-5.5
L
-13
4
NO logo
NO
L
00-20
-20
+4
L
-33
5
TEN logo
TEN
W
16-10
+6
-1
W
-6
6
ATL logo
ATL@
W
20-17
+3
+13.5
W
14
7
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
31-28
+3
-3
P
25
8
BAL logo
BAL@
L
00-40
-40
+3
L
-33
9
OAK logo
OAK
L
24-27
-3
+3
P
15
10
CAR logo
CAR@
L
21-45
-24
+8
L
-16
11
TB logo
TB
L
20-30
-10
+1.5
L
-56
12
NE logo
NE@
L
17-35
-18
+16.5
L
10
13
DEN logo
DEN
W
35-09
+26
+1.5
W
11
14
NE logo
NE
W
27-20
+7
+10.5
W
28
15
BUF logo
BUF@
L
16-24
-8
+3.5
L
-14
16
KC logo
KC@
L
13-29
-16
+11
L
-8
17
BUF logo
BUF
L
16-22
-6
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.15
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.12
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
30th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.12
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
13th
Sack EPA
-2.90
7th
Turnover EPA
-8.53
3rd
Point Differential
-7.0
29th
Points For
17.6
28th
Points Against
24.6
29th
Total Yards
307.8
25th
Passing Yards
180.3
21st
Rushing Yards
86.9
29th
Total Yards Allowed
335.7
16th
Passing Allowed
201.8
19th
Rushing Allowed
110.5
14th

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
32nd
4th Down
29%
28th
Red Zone
53%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
9th
4th Down
25%
2nd
Red Zone
63%
29th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
27th
Created
0.9
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.3
30th
Created
0.6
28th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.4
23rd