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Miami Dolphins

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
128532nd
Point Diff / Game
-11.832nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.21332nd

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL
L
10-59
-49
+7
L
-52
2
NE logo
NE
L
00-43
-43
+18
L
-131
3
DAL logo
DAL@
L
06-31
-25
+22.5
L
-16
4
LAC logo
LAC
L
10-30
-20
+14.5
L
-17
5BYE WEEK
6
WAS logo
WAS
L
16-17
-1
+6
W
86
7
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-31
-10
+17
W
13
8
PIT logo
PIT@
L
14-27
-13
+14
W
-5
9
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
26-18
+8
+3.5
W
12
10
IND logo
IND@
W
16-12
+4
+11
W
16
11
BUF logo
BUF
L
20-37
-17
+7
L
-15
12
CLE logo
CLE@
L
24-41
-17
+10.5
L
-7
13
PHI logo
PHI
W
37-31
+6
+10
W
15
14
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
21-22
-1
+5
W
9
15
NYG logo
NYG@
L
20-36
-16
+3.5
L
-8
16
CIN logo
CIN
W
38-35
+3
+1.5
W
14
17
NE logo
NE@
W
27-24
+3
+17
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.10
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.08
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.17
30th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.12
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.25
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.02
23rd
Sack EPA
-5.64
25th
Turnover EPA
-6.74
9th
Point Differential
-11.8
32nd
Points For
19.1
25th
Points Against
30.9
32nd
Total Yards
310.1
27th
Passing Yards
237.9
4th
Rushing Yards
72.3
32nd
Total Yards Allowed
398.3
30th
Passing Allowed
236.1
29th
Rushing Allowed
135.6
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
34%
28th
4th Down
46%
17th
Red Zone
56%
18th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
24th
4th Down
62%
28th
Red Zone
63%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
22nd
Created
1.1
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
27th
Created
0.8
13th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.3
32nd