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Miami Dolphins

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
16126th
Point Diff / Game
+4.86th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0916th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC@
W
36-34
+2
+3
W
19
2
NE logo
NE@
W
24-17
+7
-1.5
W
6
3
DEN logo
DEN
W
70-20
+50
-6
W
27
4
BUF logo
BUF@
L
20-48
-28
+3
L
-16
5
NYG logo
NYG
W
31-16
+15
-12.5
W
19
6
CAR logo
CAR
W
42-21
+21
-14
W
23
7
PHI logo
PHI@
L
17-31
-14
+3
L
-25
8
NE logo
NE
W
31-17
+14
-7.5
W
14
9
KC logo
KC@
L
14-21
-7
-1
L
-15
10BYE WEEK
11
OAK logo
OAK
W
20-13
+7
-14
L
-4
12
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
34-13
+21
-9.5
W
43
13
WAS logo
WAS@
W
45-15
+30
-8.5
W
37
14
TEN logo
TEN
L
27-28
-1
-14
L
-17
15
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
30-00
+30
-7
W
13
16
DAL logo
DAL
W
22-20
+2
-1.5
W
-3
17
BAL logo
BAL@
L
19-56
-37
+3
L
-24
18
BUF logo
BUF
L
14-21
-7
+2.5
L
-46
19
KC logo
KC@
L
07-26
-19
+4.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.07
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
9th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.03
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
16th
Sack EPA
-3.05
4th
Turnover EPA
-6.77
9th
Point Differential
+4.8
6th
Points For
27.9
3rd
Points Against
23.2
22nd
Total Yards
393.7
3rd
Passing Yards
184.2
16th
Rushing Yards
132.4
7th
Total Yards Allowed
323.6
11th
Passing Allowed
209.2
24th
Rushing Allowed
99.8
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
12th
4th Down
45%
24th
Red Zone
66%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
20th
4th Down
48%
13th
Red Zone
62%
26th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
24th
Created
1.5
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
24th
Created
0.8
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
20th
Created
0.7
5th