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Miami Dolphins

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-7
nfelo Rating
143621st
Point Diff / Game
-1.219th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01318th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
IND logo
IND@
L
08-33
-25
+1.5
L
-48
2
NE logo
NE
L
27-33
-6
-2.5
L
-10
3
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-31
-10
+11.5
W
-4
4
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
27-21
+6
-2.5
W
9
5
CAR logo
CAR@
L
24-27
-3
-1.5
L
-8
6
LAC logo
LAC
L
27-29
-2
+3.5
W
-16
7
CLE logo
CLE@
L
06-31
-25
+2.5
L
-67
8
ATL logo
ATL@
W
34-10
+24
+7
W
55
9
BAL logo
BAL
L
06-28
-22
+7.5
L
-37
10
BUF logo
BUF
W
30-13
+17
+8.5
W
12
11
WAS logo
WAS
W
16-13
+3
-2.5
W
19
12BYE WEEK
13
NO logo
NO
W
21-17
+4
-5.5
L
-18
14
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
34-10
+24
-2.5
W
46
15
PIT logo
PIT@
12/15
-
+3.5
-
-
16
CIN logo
CIN
12/21
-
-
-
17
TB logo
TB
12/28
-
-
-
18
NE logo
NE@
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
14th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
18th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
7th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.07
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.00
22nd
Sack EPA
-3.53
14th
Turnover EPA
-4.75
20th
Point Differential
-1.2
19th
Points For
21.6
22nd
Points Against
22.8
15th
Total Yards
304.8
25th
Passing Yards
140.2
30th
Rushing Yards
126.5
8th
Total Yards Allowed
333.7
19th
Passing Allowed
201.3
27th
Rushing Allowed
132.4
26th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
25th
4th Down
47%
23rd
Red Zone
55%
21st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
16th
4th Down
67%
26th
Red Zone
49%
5th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
25th
Created
1.2
13th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
29th
Created
0.5
21st

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
8th
Created
0.7
3rd