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  4. 2010
NE logo

New England Patriots

2010 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-3
nfelo Rating
16912nd
Point Diff / Game
+11.61st
Net EPA / Play
+0.1971st

2010 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CIN logo
CIN
W
38-24
+14
-5
W
15
2
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
14-28
-14
-3
L
-15
3
BUF logo
BUF
W
38-30
+8
-14.5
L
5
4
MIA logo
MIA@
W
41-14
+27
-1
W
20
5BYE WEEK
6
BAL logo
BAL
W
23-20
+3
-3
P
-9
7
LAC logo
LAC@
W
23-20
+3
+2.5
W
-2
8
MIN logo
MIN
W
28-18
+10
-5
W
10
9
CLE logo
CLE@
L
14-34
-20
-4
L
-15
10
PIT logo
PIT@
W
39-26
+13
+4.5
W
31
11
IND logo
IND
W
31-28
+3
-4
L
-2
12
DET logo
DET@
W
45-24
+21
-6.5
W
19
13
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
45-03
+42
-4
W
25
14
CHI logo
CHI@
W
36-07
+29
-3
W
23
15
GB logo
GB
W
31-27
+4
-14
L
-22
16
BUF logo
BUF@
W
34-03
+31
-7
W
9
17
MIA logo
MIA
W
38-07
+31
-4.5
W
11
18BYE WEEK
19
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
21-28
-7
-9.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.19
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.25
2nd
EPA / Rush
+0.08
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.00
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
15th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
22nd
Sack EPA
-2.76
8th
Turnover EPA
-2.22
32nd
Point Differential
+11.6
1st
Points For
31.7
1st
Points Against
20.1
8th
Total Yards
364.4
7th
Passing Yards
172.8
23rd
Rushing Yards
122.8
9th
Total Yards Allowed
363.9
25th
Passing Allowed
209.8
25th
Rushing Allowed
109.1
13th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
2nd
4th Down
44%
17th
Red Zone
59%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
47%
32nd
4th Down
60%
25th
Red Zone
56%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.7
1st
Created
2.2
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
1st
Created
1.5
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
2nd
Created
0.7
13th