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  4. 2011
NE logo

New England Patriots

2011 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
17073rd
Point Diff / Game
+10.83rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1683rd

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA@
W
38-24
+14
-7
W
42
2
LAC logo
LAC
W
35-21
+14
-6.5
W
17
3
BUF logo
BUF@
L
31-34
-3
-7
L
-23
4
OAK logo
OAK@
W
31-19
+12
-6.5
W
17
5
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
30-21
+9
-7.5
W
0
6
DAL logo
DAL
W
20-16
+4
-6.5
L
-16
7BYE WEEK
8
PIT logo
PIT@
L
17-25
-8
-3
L
-13
9
NYG logo
NYG
L
20-24
-4
-9.5
L
-15
10
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
37-16
+21
+2.5
W
20
11
KC logo
KC
W
34-03
+31
-17
W
2
12
PHI logo
PHI@
W
38-20
+18
-3
W
20
13
IND logo
IND
W
31-24
+7
-20.5
L
-10
14
WAS logo
WAS@
W
34-27
+7
-7.5
L
-3
15
DEN logo
DEN@
W
41-23
+18
-7
W
21
16
MIA logo
MIA
W
27-24
+3
-7
L
-43
17
BUF logo
BUF
W
49-21
+28
-10.5
W
6
18BYE WEEK
19
DEN logo
DEN
W
45-10
+35
-14
W
23
20
BAL logo
BAL
W
23-20
+3
-7
L
-21
21
NYG logo
NYG
L
17-21
-4
-3
L
-10

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.22
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.32
3rd
EPA / Rush
+0.04
4th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
21st
Sack EPA
-2.73
5th
Turnover EPA
-4.34
30th
Point Differential
+10.8
3rd
Points For
31.5
3rd
Points Against
20.7
11th
Total Yards
423.2
2nd
Passing Yards
256.2
2nd
Rushing Yards
110.2
19th
Total Yards Allowed
401.2
31st
Passing Allowed
232.2
28th
Rushing Allowed
118.3
19th

Conversions For

3rd Down
46%
4th
4th Down
69%
2nd
Red Zone
65%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
28th
4th Down
43%
17th
Red Zone
54%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
7th
Created
1.8
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
1.3
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
11th
Created
0.5
25th