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NE logo

New England Patriots

2014 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
16931st
Point Diff / Game
+10.61st
Net EPA / Play
+0.1701st

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA@
L
20-33
-13
-4
L
-17
2
MIN logo
MIN@
W
30-07
+23
-3
W
18
3
OAK logo
OAK
W
16-09
+7
-14
L
-16
4
KC logo
KC@
L
14-41
-27
-3
L
-20
5
CIN logo
CIN
W
43-17
+26
+2.5
W
22
6
BUF logo
BUF@
W
37-22
+15
+1
W
24
7
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
27-25
+2
-9.5
L
-13
8
CHI logo
CHI
W
51-23
+28
-6
W
28
9
DEN logo
DEN
W
43-21
+22
+3
W
16
10BYE WEEK
11
IND logo
IND@
W
42-20
+22
+3
W
7
12
DET logo
DET
W
34-09
+25
-7
W
17
13
GB logo
GB@
L
21-26
-5
+3
L
-1
14
LAC logo
LAC@
W
23-14
+9
-4
W
32
15
MIA logo
MIA
W
41-13
+28
-9
W
15
16
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
17-16
+1
-10
L
-32
17
BUF logo
BUF
L
09-17
-8
-4.5
L
-29
18BYE WEEK
19
BAL logo
BAL
W
35-31
+4
-7
L
-0
20
IND logo
IND
W
45-07
+38
-7
W
42
21
SEA logo
SEA@
W
28-24
+4
-1
W
-4

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.19
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
5th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
9th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
19th
Sack EPA
-2.69
4th
Turnover EPA
-3.67
30th
Point Differential
+10.6
1st
Points For
30.3
1st
Points Against
19.7
8th
Total Yards
370.7
10th
Passing Yards
219.8
10th
Rushing Yards
103.9
19th
Total Yards Allowed
344.5
12th
Passing Allowed
205.4
21st
Rushing Allowed
107.9
13th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
3rd
4th Down
60%
3rd
Red Zone
63%
5th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
13th
4th Down
42%
12th
Red Zone
53%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
2nd
Created
1.6
13th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
6th
Created
1.1
10th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
3rd
Created
0.5
23rd