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NE logo

New England Patriots

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
17-2
nfelo Rating
17461st
Point Diff / Game
+12.31st
Net EPA / Play
+0.2141st

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI@
W
23-21
+2
+9
W
16
2
MIA logo
MIA
W
31-24
+7
-6
W
-46
3
HOU logo
HOU
W
27-00
+27
-1
W
21
4
BUF logo
BUF
L
00-16
-16
-3.5
L
99
5
CLE logo
CLE@
W
33-13
+20
-10
W
17
6
CIN logo
CIN
W
35-17
+18
-7.5
W
15
7
PIT logo
PIT@
W
27-16
+11
-7.5
W
10
8
BUF logo
BUF@
W
41-25
+16
-6.5
W
25
9BYE WEEK
10
SEA logo
SEA
L
24-31
-7
-7.5
L
-18
11
SF logo
SF@
W
30-17
+13
-12
W
9
12
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
22-17
+5
-9.5
L
-10
13
LAR logo
LAR
W
26-10
+16
-13.5
W
-7
14
BAL logo
BAL
W
30-23
+7
-6
W
-11
15
DEN logo
DEN@
W
16-03
+13
-3
W
4
16
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
41-03
+38
-17
W
8
17
MIA logo
MIA@
W
35-14
+21
-8
W
18
18BYE WEEK
19
HOU logo
HOU
W
34-16
+18
-16.5
W
-12
20
PIT logo
PIT
W
36-17
+19
-5.5
W
16
21
ATL logo
ATL@
W
34-28
+6
-3
W
-56

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.12
2nd
EPA / Pass
+0.25
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.07
16th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.09
5th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
13th
Sack EPA
-2.51
3rd
Turnover EPA
-3.33
31st
Point Differential
+12.3
1st
Points For
28.7
3rd
Points Against
16.4
1st
Total Yards
396.8
4th
Passing Yards
228.9
8th
Rushing Yards
112.3
12th
Total Yards Allowed
327.6
8th
Passing Allowed
176.6
6th
Rushing Allowed
88.4
3rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
2nd
4th Down
69%
6th
Red Zone
64%
8th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
4th
4th Down
37%
7th
Red Zone
53%
12th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
3rd
Created
1.6
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.3
1st
Created
0.9
12th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
14th
Created
0.7
10th