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NO logo

New Orleans Saints

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
154610th
Point Diff / Game
+0.916th
Net EPA / Play
-0.00619th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK
L
34-35
-1
-2.5
L
-5
2
NYG logo
NYG@
L
13-16
-3
+4
W
-5
3
ATL logo
ATL
L
32-45
-13
-3
L
-10
4
LAC logo
LAC@
W
35-34
+1
+4
W
-1
5BYE WEEK
6
CAR logo
CAR
W
41-38
+3
+2.5
W
17
7
KC logo
KC@
L
21-27
-6
+6.5
W
10
8
SEA logo
SEA
W
25-20
+5
+1
W
17
9
SF logo
SF@
W
41-23
+18
-5.5
W
33
10
DEN logo
DEN
L
23-25
-2
-3
L
-8
11
CAR logo
CAR@
L
20-23
-3
+3.5
W
-4
12
LAR logo
LAR
W
49-21
+28
-8
W
30
13
DET logo
DET
L
13-28
-15
-6.5
L
-24
14
TB logo
TB@
L
11-16
-5
+2
L
-32
15
ARI logo
ARI@
W
48-41
+7
+3
W
37
16
TB logo
TB
W
31-24
+7
-3
W
1
17
ATL logo
ATL@
L
32-38
-6
+7.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
7th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.07
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
15th
Sack EPA
-3.51
10th
Turnover EPA
-7.87
6th
Point Differential
+0.9
16th
Points For
29.3
2nd
Points Against
28.4
31st
Total Yards
426.3
1st
Passing Yards
317.1
1st
Rushing Yards
109.1
15th
Total Yards Allowed
375.8
26th
Passing Allowed
240.6
28th
Rushing Allowed
101.6
14th

Conversions For

3rd Down
49%
1st
4th Down
87%
2nd
Red Zone
66%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
27th
4th Down
40%
10th
Red Zone
56%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
19th
Created
1.4
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
18th
Created
0.6
28th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.8
2nd