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NO logo

New Orleans Saints

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
146322nd
Point Diff / Game
+1.714th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02914th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB
W
38-03
+35
+3.5
W
26
2
CAR logo
CAR@
L
07-26
-19
-3
L
-55
3
NE logo
NE@
W
28-13
+15
+3
W
8
4
NYG logo
NYG
L
21-27
-6
-7.5
L
-22
5
WAS logo
WAS@
W
33-22
+11
-2.5
W
9
6BYE WEEK
7
SEA logo
SEA@
W
13-10
+3
-6
L
2
8
TB logo
TB
W
36-27
+9
+3.5
W
-48
9
ATL logo
ATL
L
25-27
-2
-7
L
-0
10
TEN logo
TEN@
L
21-23
-2
+3
W
8
11
PHI logo
PHI@
L
29-40
-11
+2.5
L
-9
12
BUF logo
BUF
L
06-31
-25
+7
L
-82
13
DAL logo
DAL
L
17-27
-10
+6
L
-16
14
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
30-09
+21
-4.5
W
26
15
TB logo
TB@
W
09-00
+9
+12
W
-15
16
MIA logo
MIA
L
03-20
-17
+3.5
L
-13
17
CAR logo
CAR
W
18-10
+8
-6.5
W
18
18
ATL logo
ATL@
W
30-20
+10
-4.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
27th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.14
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.10
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.14
1st
Sack EPA
-4.33
17th
Turnover EPA
-5.36
18th
Point Differential
+1.7
14th
Points For
21.4
19th
Points Against
19.7
4th
Total Yards
304.5
28th
Passing Yards
152.1
31st
Rushing Yards
117.1
16th
Total Yards Allowed
318.4
6th
Passing Allowed
201.1
13th
Rushing Allowed
93.6
4th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
30th
4th Down
52%
17th
Red Zone
59%
16th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
5th
4th Down
43%
5th
Red Zone
43%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
9th
Created
1.5
11th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
12th
Created
1.1
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
3rd
Created
0.4
18th