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  4. 2025
NO logo

New Orleans Saints

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-11
nfelo Rating
141823rd
Point Diff / Game
-4.524th
Net EPA / Play
-0.09026th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI
L
13-20
-7
+6
L
-12
2
SF logo
SF
L
21-26
-5
+3
L
4
3
SEA logo
SEA@
L
13-44
-31
+7.5
L
-9
4
BUF logo
BUF@
L
19-31
-12
+14.5
W
7
5
NYG logo
NYG
W
26-14
+12
-2.5
W
14
6
NE logo
NE
L
19-25
-6
+3.5
L
-4
7
CHI logo
CHI@
L
14-26
-12
+3.5
L
-14
8
TB logo
TB
L
03-23
-20
+3.5
L
-20
9
LAR logo
LAR@
L
10-34
-24
+14.5
L
-9
10
CAR logo
CAR@
W
17-07
+10
+5.5
W
18
11BYE WEEK
12
ATL logo
ATL
L
10-24
-14
-1.5
L
-14
13
MIA logo
MIA@
L
17-21
-4
+5.5
W
7
14
TB logo
TB@
W
24-20
+4
+7.5
W
12
15
CAR logo
CAR
W
20-17
+3
+2.5
W
11
16
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
29-06
+23
-6.5
W
18
17
TEN logo
TEN@
W
34-26
+8
-1.5
W
42
18
ATL logo
ATL@
L
17-19
-2
+3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.12
29th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
31st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
10th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
2nd
Sack EPA
-5.28
25th
Turnover EPA
-6.36
7th
Point Differential
-4.5
24th
Points For
18.0
28th
Points Against
22.5
14th
Total Yards
313.7
23rd
Passing Yards
204.9
7th
Rushing Yards
94.4
28th
Total Yards Allowed
300.0
9th
Passing Allowed
158.3
5th
Rushing Allowed
120.8
19th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
17th
4th Down
41%
31st
Red Zone
44%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
3rd
4th Down
53%
13th
Red Zone
53%
9th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
24th
Created
1.2
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
16th
Created
0.6
20th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
28th
Created
0.6
3rd