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TB logo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
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  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
139325th
Point Diff / Game
-4.725th
Net EPA / Play
-0.07824th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN
L
14-42
-28
-3
L
-25
2
NO logo
NO@
W
26-19
+7
+9
W
15
3
HOU logo
HOU@
L
09-19
-10
+6
L
-4
4
CAR logo
CAR
L
23-37
-14
+3
L
-12
5
JAX logo
JAX
W
38-31
+7
-1
W
7
6BYE WEEK
7
WAS logo
WAS@
L
30-31
-1
+3
W
13
8
ATL logo
ATL@
W
23-20
+3
+8
W
10
9
NYG logo
NYG
L
18-32
-14
+1.5
L
-14
10
DAL logo
DAL
W
10-06
+4
+1
W
-4
11
PHI logo
PHI@
W
45-17
+28
+6.5
W
29
12
IND logo
IND@
L
12-25
-13
+3
L
-10
13
ATL logo
ATL
W
23-19
+4
12
14
NO logo
NO
L
17-24
-7
-6
L
-13
15
LAR logo
LAR@
L
23-31
-8
+1
L
7
16
CHI logo
CHI
L
21-26
-5
-3
L
-10
17
CAR logo
CAR@
L
10-38
-28
+10
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.04
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
13th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
27th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
13th
Sack EPA
-2.73
3rd
Turnover EPA
-7.86
9th
Point Differential
-4.7
25th
Points For
21.4
20th
Points Against
26.1
26th
Total Yards
376.0
4th
Passing Yards
186.4
24th
Rushing Yards
135.1
4th
Total Yards Allowed
340.4
11th
Passing Allowed
226.7
25th
Rushing Allowed
100.4
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
10th
4th Down
54%
11th
Red Zone
52%
23rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
46%
30th
4th Down
67%
27th
Red Zone
63%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
19th
Created
1.5
13th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
20th
Created
0.7
20th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
21st
Created
0.8
5th