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  4. 2012
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-7
nfelo Rating
155113th
Point Diff / Game
+2.212th
Net EPA / Play
+0.04412th

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO@
W
40-32
+8
+8.5
W
46
2
LAR logo
LAR@
L
28-31
-3
-4
L
4
3
CIN logo
CIN
L
31-38
-7
-3
L
-30
4
TB logo
TB@
W
24-22
+2
+2
W
11
5
ATL logo
ATL
L
17-24
-7
+3
L
-25
6
MIN logo
MIN
W
38-26
+12
+2
W
16
7
NYG logo
NYG@
L
23-27
-4
+6.5
W
12
8
PIT logo
PIT@
L
12-27
-15
+4.5
L
-16
9
CAR logo
CAR
L
13-21
-8
-3
L
-27
10BYE WEEK
11
PHI logo
PHI
W
31-06
+25
-3.5
W
21
12
DAL logo
DAL@
W
38-31
+7
+3.5
W
35
13
NYG logo
NYG
W
17-16
+1
+3
W
5
14
BAL logo
BAL
W
31-28
+3
-2
W
-143
15
CLE logo
CLE@
W
38-21
+17
+4
W
172
16
PHI logo
PHI@
W
27-20
+7
-5
W
-2
17
DAL logo
DAL
W
28-18
+10
-3
W
7
18
SEA logo
SEA
L
14-24
-10
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.10
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.19
6th
EPA / Rush
+0.06
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.07
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.03
23rd
Sack EPA
-3.03
9th
Turnover EPA
-3.87
30th
Point Differential
+2.2
12th
Points For
26.5
6th
Points Against
24.2
22nd
Total Yards
372.7
9th
Passing Yards
197.5
15th
Rushing Yards
165.6
1st
Total Yards Allowed
378.5
28th
Passing Allowed
263.1
32nd
Rushing Allowed
103.6
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
23rd
4th Down
63%
6th
Red Zone
61%
5th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
31st
4th Down
56%
23rd
Red Zone
53%
14th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
1st
Created
1.9
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
3rd
Created
1.2
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.6
15th