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WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
147915th
Point Diff / Game
-0.515th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01015th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
L
10-17
-7
+4
L
-21
2
LAR logo
LAR
W
24-10
+14
+3
W
17
3
NYG logo
NYG@
L
21-32
-11
+3
L
-0
4
PHI logo
PHI
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
32
5
ATL logo
ATL@
L
19-25
-6
+7
W
1
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
20-34
-14
+7.5
L
-14
7
TB logo
TB
W
31-30
+1
-3
L
14
8BYE WEEK
9
NE logo
NE@
L
10-27
-17
+14
L
-12
10
NO logo
NO
W
47-14
+33
+1
W
20
11
CAR logo
CAR@
L
16-44
-28
+7
L
-17
12
NYG logo
NYG
W
20-14
+6
+1.5
W
27
13
DAL logo
DAL
L
16-19
-3
-2
L
-16
14
CHI logo
CHI@
W
24-21
+3
+4
W
10
15
BUF logo
BUF
W
35-25
+10
+2
W
23
16
PHI logo
PHI@
W
38-24
+14
+3.5
W
17
17
DAL logo
DAL@
W
34-23
+11
+3
W
3
18
GB logo
GB
L
18-35
-17
-1.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
28th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
20th
Sack EPA
-4.32
20th
Turnover EPA
-5.74
19th
Point Differential
-0.5
15th
Points For
23.9
11th
Points Against
24.4
19th
Total Yards
354.1
15th
Passing Yards
239.2
7th
Rushing Yards
97.1
20th
Total Yards Allowed
378.8
26th
Passing Allowed
206.1
11th
Rushing Allowed
123.8
26th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
5th
4th Down
50%
15th
Red Zone
57%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
10th
4th Down
57%
22nd
Red Zone
56%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
10th
Created
1.8
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
9th
Created
0.6
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
13th
Created
1.1
1st