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WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2017 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
146018th
Point Diff / Game
-2.917th
Net EPA / Play
-0.05820th

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PHI logo
PHI
L
17-30
-13
+1
L
-29
2
LAR logo
LAR@
W
27-20
+7
+3
W
4
3
OAK logo
OAK
W
27-10
+17
+3.5
W
22
4
KC logo
KC@
L
20-29
-9
+6.5
L
-1
5BYE WEEK
6
SF logo
SF
W
26-24
+2
-11
L
-3
7
PHI logo
PHI@
L
24-34
-10
+5.5
L
-12
8
DAL logo
DAL
L
19-33
-14
+3
L
-30
9
SEA logo
SEA@
W
17-14
+3
+8.5
W
15
10
MIN logo
MIN
L
30-38
-8
+1
L
-11
11
NO logo
NO@
L
31-34
-3
+9.5
W
12
12
NYG logo
NYG
W
20-10
+10
-7
W
-5
13
DAL logo
DAL@
L
14-38
-24
-1.5
L
-18
14
LAC logo
LAC@
L
13-30
-17
+6
L
-16
15
ARI logo
ARI
W
20-15
+5
-4
W
-2
16
DEN logo
DEN
W
27-11
+16
-3
W
13
17
NYG logo
NYG@
L
10-18
-8
-5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
25th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.15
29th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
13th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
8th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
31st
Sack EPA
-4.97
21st
Turnover EPA
-7.73
6th
Point Differential
-2.9
17th
Points For
21.4
16th
Points Against
24.3
27th
Total Yards
324.9
17th
Passing Yards
202.0
14th
Rushing Yards
90.5
28th
Total Yards Allowed
348.3
22nd
Passing Allowed
195.0
15th
Rushing Allowed
134.3
32nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
31st
4th Down
56%
6th
Red Zone
53%
17th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
7th
4th Down
56%
23rd
Red Zone
49%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
24th
Created
1.6
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
17th
Created
1.0
9th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
25th
Created
0.6
9th