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  4. 2023
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-13
nfelo Rating
136731st
Point Diff / Game
-11.132nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.20632nd

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI
W
20-16
+4
-7
L
-6
2
DEN logo
DEN@
W
35-33
+2
+4
W
16
3
BUF logo
BUF
L
03-37
-34
+5
L
-47
4
PHI logo
PHI@
L
31-34
-3
+9
W
15
5
CHI logo
CHI
L
20-40
-20
-6
L
-4
6
ATL logo
ATL@
W
24-16
+8
+1.5
W
16
7
NYG logo
NYG@
L
07-14
-7
-3
L
-16
8
PHI logo
PHI
L
31-38
-7
+7
P
16
9
NE logo
NE@
W
20-17
+3
+3
W
13
10
SEA logo
SEA@
L
26-29
-3
+6
W
9
11
NYG logo
NYG
L
19-31
-12
-7.5
L
-30
12
DAL logo
DAL@
L
10-45
-35
+13
L
-14
13
MIA logo
MIA
L
15-45
-30
+8.5
L
-33
14BYE WEEK
15
LAR logo
LAR@
L
20-28
-8
+6.5
L
-9
16
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
28-30
-2
+3
W
-11
17
SF logo
SF
L
10-27
-17
+14
L
-31
18
DAL logo
DAL
L
10-38
-28
+13
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.16
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
10th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.10
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.17
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.03
24th
Sack EPA
-6.29
29th
Turnover EPA
-8.73
2nd
Point Differential
-11.1
32nd
Points For
19.4
25th
Points Against
30.5
32nd
Total Yards
313.1
24th
Passing Yards
219.2
6th
Rushing Yards
93.9
26th
Total Yards Allowed
389.3
32nd
Passing Allowed
169.4
7th
Rushing Allowed
127.0
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
24th
4th Down
55%
10th
Red Zone
63%
6th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
26th
4th Down
62%
29th
Red Zone
57%
19th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
29th
Created
1.1
25th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
30th
Created
0.5
29th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
22nd
Created
0.6
13th