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  4. 2024
WAS logo

Washington Commanders

2024 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
14-6
nfelo Rating
159611th
Point Diff / Game
+4.010th
Net EPA / Play
+0.07010th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TB logo
TB@
L
20-37
-17
+4
L
0
2
NYG logo
NYG
W
21-18
+3
-1.5
W
1
3
CIN logo
CIN@
W
38-33
+5
+7.5
W
41
4
ARI logo
ARI@
W
42-14
+28
+3.5
W
22
5
CLE logo
CLE
W
34-13
+21
-3
W
24
6
BAL logo
BAL@
L
23-30
-7
+7
P
18
7
CAR logo
CAR
W
40-07
+33
-10
W
23
8
CHI logo
CHI
W
18-15
+3
-1.5
W
8
9
NYG logo
NYG@
W
27-22
+5
-4
W
8
10
PIT logo
PIT
L
27-28
-1
-1.5
L
-8
11
PHI logo
PHI@
L
18-26
-8
+4.5
L
-11
12
DAL logo
DAL
L
26-34
-8
-10.5
L
-7
13
TEN logo
TEN
W
42-19
+23
-6
W
17
14BYE WEEK
15
NO logo
NO@
W
20-19
+1
-7.5
L
-9
16
PHI logo
PHI
W
36-33
+3
+4
W
20
17
ATL logo
ATL
W
30-24
+6
-3.5
W
7
18
DAL logo
DAL@
W
23-19
+4
-7
L
-13
19
TB logo
TB@
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
13
20
DET logo
DET@
W
45-31
+14
+8.5
W
41
21
PHI logo
PHI@
L
23-55
-32
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.15
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
6th
EPA / Rush
+0.10
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
29th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
20th
EPA / Rush
+0.00
22nd
Sack EPA
-3.82
13th
Turnover EPA
-3.81
26th
Point Differential
+4.0
10th
Points For
28.8
6th
Points Against
24.9
22nd
Total Yards
373.8
5th
Passing Yards
187.3
18th
Rushing Yards
149.3
4th
Total Yards Allowed
341.2
17th
Passing Allowed
197.8
20th
Rushing Allowed
143.4
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
6th
4th Down
79%
1st
Red Zone
63%
6th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
16th
4th Down
70%
29th
Red Zone
64%
27th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
7th
Created
1.3
14th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
8th
Created
0.6
24th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
9th
Created
0.7
6th