PredictionTracker's most accurate model of 2024Data Driven
Data Driven
NFL Predictions
Using play-by-play data, advanced metrics, and custom models to generate picks and power rankings for all 32 teams.
57.0%
Win Rate (Open)
53.7%
Win Rate (Close)
+5.6%
Avg CLV
QB Rankings
1
D.MayeNE
201.0
EPA2
M.StaffordLAR
150.5
EPA3
J.LoveGB
150.3
EPA4
J.AllenBUF
145.0
EPA5
D.PrescottDAL
134.1
EPAModel Performance
+120.30u
Units
(vs Open)
57.0%
Win Rate
(vs Open)
5K
Total
Games
Research & Analysis
What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL
If you follow the NFL, and especially if you follow football analytics, Expected Points Added (EPA) ...
2021-10-23•EPA
Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL
Regressing a predictive NFL model to market spreads creates a model that reliably beats the Vegas li...
2020-11-08•Models
Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads
By using data to model key numbers in NFL outcomes, the expected value (EV) of a bet can be calculat...
2020-11-01•EV
Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance
Weighting Expected Points Added (EPA) yields a model that predicts future NFL team performance bette...
2020-09-05•Weighted EPA
Power Rankings
1
Seahawks
1731
302
2
Rams
1660
324
3
Bills
1635
180
4
Patriots
1621
-9
5
49ers
1609
154
6
Texans
1603
87
7
Lions
1602
261
8
Jaguars
1600
135
Analytics Platform
Deep dive into NFL analytics with a comprehensive platform featuring advanced metrics and insights.
- • Advanced team & player metrics
- • Interactive data visualizations
- • Historical data tables
- • Game previews
- • Calculators
Power Rankings
Elo rankings for the NFL
Track team strength, efficiency, and momentum throughout the season using a custom Elo model tailored to the dynamics of the NFL.
Power Rankings
1Seahawks
1731
302
2Rams
1660
324
3Bills
1635
180
4Patriots
1621
-9
549ers
1609
154
6Texans
1603
87
7Lions
1602
261
8Jaguars
1600
135
Model Performance
Transparent Model Performance
nfelo's performance backtest is updated weekly and available back to 2009. Picks are submitted and tracked by PredictionTracker.com, and the model code is available openly on Github.
Model Performance
+120.30u
Units
(vs Open)
57.0%
Win Rate
(vs Open)
5K
Total
Games
Research
Explore the model
Major features and advanced metrics used in the model are explained through deep dives, primers, and analysis.
Latest Research
What are Expected Points Added (EPA) in the NFL
If you follow the NFL, and especially if you follow football analytics, Expected Points Added (EPA) ...
2021-10-23•EPA
Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL
Regressing a predictive NFL model to market spreads creates a model that reliably beats the Vegas li...
2020-11-08•Models
Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads
By using data to model key numbers in NFL outcomes, the expected value (EV) of a bet can be calculat...
2020-11-01•EV
Weighted EPA Methodology & Performance
Weighting Expected Points Added (EPA) yields a model that predicts future NFL team performance bette...
2020-09-05•Weighted EPA