SF49ers
5-6
10
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
11 mph
35
BUFBills
9-2
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
7
0
10
Bills
7
14
7
7
35
Spread
-6.5
Total
PUSH
45
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
239
372
Total Plays
47
56
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.18
Passing Yards
86
--
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.41
Rushing Yards
153
220
Rush Attempts
27
38
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.24
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-6.60
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
10
35
Penalty EPA
-2.18
-3.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
49ers+6.5
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,650
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+44.6
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
-21.8
Net QB Adjustment
-14.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
128.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13
EPA
EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
14
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
3
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U