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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ bills week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
5-6
10
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
11 mph
35
BUFBills
9-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
0
7
0
10
Bills
7
14
7
7
35

Spread

BUF logo
-6.5

Total

PUSH
45
P

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
239
372
Total Plays
47
56
Yards / Play
5.1
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.18
Passing Yards
86
--
Comp/Att
11/18(61%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.41
Rushing Yards
153
220
Rush Attempts
27
38
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
4
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
30%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.24
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-6.60
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
10
35
Penalty EPA
-2.18
-3.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+44.3
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+11.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
-21.7
Net QB Adjustment
-14.7
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
134.0
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
09/09
0.6
52
09/15
-1.2
40
09/22
8.2
93
09/29
-0.3
47
10/06
-4.2
21
10/10
6.4
86
10/20
-2.8
29
10/27
6.9
89
11/10
3.8
74
11/17
1.7
61
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
09/12
-0.8
43
09/23
10.7
98
09/29
-3.6
24
10/06
-3.4
25
10/14
6.8
89
10/20
4.4
77
10/27
4.4
77
11/03
2.6
67
11/10
-1.2
40
11/17
6.5
87

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Bills Defense
49ers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
4
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
24
Rushing Yards / Game
11
13

EPA

EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
13
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
14
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Bills Offense vs 49ers Defense
Bills logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
3
14
EPA / Rush
3
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
17
W
W
O
10/06
-1
L
L
U
10/10
12
W
W
O
10/20
-10
L
L
U
10/27
6
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
-3
L
L
U
11/24
-28
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
21
W
W
U
09/23
37
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/20
24
W
W
O
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
9
W
W
O