SF49ers
4-4
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
9 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
4-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
85°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
3
10
23
Buccaneers
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
215
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
6.8
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.08
Passing Yards
338
105
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.05
Rushing Yards
75
110
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
45%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.26
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-11
Sack EPA
-3.53
-3.20
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-4.77
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model68.1%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+6.5
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,631
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.7
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.6
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+30.4
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
-2.8
Final Difference
-131.4
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
13
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
18
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
23
24
RZ Efficiency
14
7
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
4
14
EPA / Rush
7
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
4
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U