SF49ers
0-3
15
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
018
ARICardinals
1-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
3
3
6
0
3
15
Cardinals
0
6
3
3
6
18
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
368
Total Plays
79
79
Yards / Play
3.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.06
Passing Yards
210
317
Comp/Att
24/49(49%)
33/51(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.05
Rushing Yards
95
51
Rush Attempts
27
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
26%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
16
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.50
-5.22
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-24
-40
Sack EPA
-3.69
-8.41
Penalties
13
10
Penalty Yards
113
80
Penalty EPA
-10.99
-8.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+42.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
6
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
17
9
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
28
25
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
32
RZ Efficiency
30
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U