SF49ers
11-4
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
020
ARICardinals
10-5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
17
0
0
6
23
Cardinals
0
7
0
13
20
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
482
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
6.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
292
399
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.15
Rushing Yards
83
83
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.33
-1.82
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
30
Penalty EPA
-1.61
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
49ers+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.0
Market Regression
+27.7
Final Difference
-5.1
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
26
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U