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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ cardinals week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
11-4
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
20
ARICardinals
10-5
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
17
0
0
6
23
Cardinals
0
7
0
13
20

Spread

SF logo
+3

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
375
482
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
6.4
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
292
399
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.15
Rushing Yards
83
83
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.02
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-3.33
-1.82
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
20
30
Penalty EPA
-1.61
-4.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model49.2%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.0
Market Regression
+27.0
Final Difference
-5.8
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Value
Ptile
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78
12/23
2.0
63
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.4
Value
Ptile
10/13
1.4
60
10/17
-5.7
15
10/27
-2.6
35
11/10
1.2
58
11/17
6.2
87
11/24
3.9
77
12/01
-3.1
31
12/08
5.5
85
12/15
0.2
51
12/22
-8.9
5

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
6
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1

EPA

EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
17
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
26
16
Turnover EPA / Game
31
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
3
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
19
7
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
4
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
24
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O
12/23
10
W
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
-12
L
L
O
10/17
-12
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
29
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
20
W
W
U
12/15
3
W
P
O
12/22
7
W
W
U