SF49ers
6-10
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
047
ARICardinals
7-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
14
7
0
24
Cardinals
3
17
6
21
47
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
393
Total Plays
73
63
Yards / Play
6.0
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.34
Passing Yards
298
--
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.23
Rushing Yards
138
151
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.71
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-4.48
--
Penalties
13
1
Penalty Yards
85
--
Penalty EPA
-9.21
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
49ers+5.5
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+75.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
-63.8
Market Regression
+27.1
Final Difference
92.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-63.8
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
25
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
13
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U