SF49ers
8-3
42
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
44 mph
19
PHIEagles
10-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
44 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
14
14
14
42
Eagles
6
0
7
6
19
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
333
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
8.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.57
+0.08
Passing Yards
310
287
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
11.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.83
+0.18
Rushing Yards
146
46
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
5.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
12
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
73%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-4
-27
Sack EPA
-2.16
-4.98
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
47
47
Penalty EPA
-6.21
-4.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,690
Home Field
+28.9
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-16.1
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.8
Market Regression
-69.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
30
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
29
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
22
Interceptions / Game
12
26
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
13
25
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Eagles Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
7
18
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
9
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U