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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ giants week 9, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
5-3
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
5 mph
24
NYGGiants
2-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
3
14
34
Giants
7
0
3
14
24

Spread

SF logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
380
296
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.15
Passing Yards
221
179
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.05
Rushing Yards
159
117
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
55%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.16
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-3.51
-2.27
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
34
23
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-4.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+22.5
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-30.1
Away QB Adjustment
-43.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-37.9
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-43.5
Value
Ptile
12/15
2.7
68
12/22
1.0
56
12/29
0.9
55
01/05
-3.1
27
09/14
3.2
74
09/21
-0.2
50
10/02
6.3
89
10/12
-6.7
9
10/19
-4.8
18
10/26
0.7
57
J. Dart headshot

J. Dart

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-30.1
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
1.2
60
10/09
4.4
80
10/19
0.7
56
10/26
-2.4
34

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
49ers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
7
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
30

EPA

EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
4
18
EPA / Rush
22
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
10
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
2
28
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Giants logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
13
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6

EPA

EPA / Play
20
18
EPA / Pass
23
24
EPA / Rush
6
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
28
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-23
L
L
O
09/07
4
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
W
O
09/21
1
W
L
U
09/28
-5
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/12
-11
L
L
O
10/19
10
W
W
U
10/26
-11
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
12
W
W
O
01/05
-7
L
L
U
09/07
-15
L
L
U
09/14
-3
L
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
-18
L
L
O