SF49ers
5-3
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
5 mph
24
NYGGiants
2-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
3
14
34
Giants
7
0
3
14
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
380
296
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.15
Passing Yards
221
179
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.56
+0.05
Rushing Yards
159
117
Rush Attempts
39
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.37
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
55%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.16
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-12
Sack EPA
-3.51
-2.27
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
34
23
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-4.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-2
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
+22.5
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-30.1
Away QB Adjustment
-43.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-29.1
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-43.5
J. Dart
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-30.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
27
30
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
10
23
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Giants Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
15
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
13
24
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
25
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
16
9
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
19
23
RZ Efficiency
27
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U