SF49ers
5-3
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
11 mph
3
JAXJaguars
6-2
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
3
14
7
34
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
221
Total Plays
60
54
Yards / Play
7.3
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.39
Passing Yards
293
162
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.73
Rushing Yards
144
59
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.39
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-9
-28
Sack EPA
-3.63
-11.99
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
90
39
Penalty EPA
-3.93
-4.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model58.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-13
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+45.8
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.6
Away Bye Adj
-34.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.5
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-56.9
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
28
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
27
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jaguars
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U