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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ jaguars week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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SF logo
SF49ers
5-3
34
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
11 mph
3
JAXJaguars
6-2
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
3
14
7
34
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

SF logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
437
221
Total Plays
60
54
Yards / Play
7.3
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.39
Passing Yards
293
162
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.73
Rushing Yards
144
59
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
12
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.39
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-9
-28
Sack EPA
-3.63
-11.99
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
90
39
Penalty EPA
-3.93
-4.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-17
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+45.7
Base HFA
+43.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.6
Away Bye Adj
-34.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.5
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
-11.6
Final Difference
-57.8
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
01/22
-0.3
50
01/29
-3.9
24
09/10
1.8
62
09/17
1.8
62
09/21
3.6
74
10/01
6.3
88
10/08
8.1
94
10/15
-6.4
12
10/23
-0.9
44
10/29
5.3
83
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
01/14
-0.8
47
01/21
-2.1
36
09/10
1.7
61
09/17
-5.3
17
09/24
3.0
69
10/01
2.3
65
10/08
2.7
68
10/15
-2.6
32
10/19
6.6
89
10/29
1.8
61

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
49ers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
2
16
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9

EPA

EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
5
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense
Jaguars logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
22
17
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5

EPA

EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
19
8
EPA / Rush
28
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
27
Interceptions / Game
19
2
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
21
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
7
W
W
U
01/29
-24
L
L
U
09/10
23
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
L
O
09/21
18
W
W
U
10/01
19
W
W
O
10/08
32
W
W
O
10/15
-2
L
L
P
10/23
-5
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
1
W
W
O
01/21
-7
L
W
U
09/10
10
W
W
O
09/17
-8
L
L
U
09/24
-20
L
L
O
10/01
16
W
W
U
10/08
5
W
W
U
10/15
17
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
O
10/29
10
W
W
U