SF49ers
5-5
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
11 mph
38
GBPackers
7-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
3
0
10
Packers
10
7
7
14
38
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
325
Total Plays
47
67
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.19
Passing Yards
197
156
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
13/23(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.54
+0.29
Rushing Yards
44
169
Rush Attempts
16
42
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.07
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-2
-7
Sack EPA
-7.04
-3.83
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
77
40
Penalty EPA
-8.36
-4.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
49ers+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+33.6
Base HFA
+41.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+91.9
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-96.9
Market Regression
+79.6
Final Difference
122.2
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-96.9
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
9
5
EPA / Rush
13
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
22
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U