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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ packers week 12, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
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    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate EV for spreads
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SF logo
SF49ers
5-5
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
11 mph
38
GBPackers
7-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
43°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
3
0
10
Packers
10
7
7
14
38

Spread

GB logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
241
325
Total Plays
47
67
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.19
Passing Yards
197
156
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
13/23(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.54
+0.29
Rushing Yards
44
169
Rush Attempts
16
42
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
11
22
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
30%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.07
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-2
-7
Sack EPA
-7.04
-3.83
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
77
40
Penalty EPA
-8.36
-4.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,574
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+34.2
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+92.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-97.0
Market Regression
+78.1
Final Difference
120.7
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Allen headshot

B. Allen

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-97.0
Value
Ptile
11/03
-1.7
40
11/17
-4.4
23
11/24
-10.9
3
11/29
-6.0
11
12/06
-8.0
6
12/13
0.5
49
12/27
7.4
90
01/03
-12.1
1
01/09
-6.3
13
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
01/14
8.2
94
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36
09/29
4.2
76
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81
10/20
-0.9
42
10/27
-5.0
16
11/03
-1.4
38
11/17
4.0
75

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
49ers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
4
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
9
5
EPA / Rush
13
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
31
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
22
RZ Efficiency
14
16
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Packers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
30
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
8
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
23
26
RZ Efficiency
10
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
13
W
W
O
09/15
-6
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/29
17
W
W
O
10/06
-1
L
L
U
10/10
12
W
W
O
10/20
-10
L
L
U
10/27
6
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
-3
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P
10/20
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
1
W
L
U