SF49ers
10-2
48
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
046
NOSaints
10-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
21
7
13
48
Saints
13
14
6
13
46
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
516
465
Total Plays
63
70
Yards / Play
8.2
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.21
Passing Yards
354
--
Comp/Att
27/36(75%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.35
Rushing Yards
162
116
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
6.8
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
28
Passing 1st downs
15
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.69
-5.99
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-5.66
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
67
50
Penalty EPA
-9.80
-9.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model55.2%
Spread Pick
Saints-1.5
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,618
Home Field
+81.8
Base HFA
+47.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.7
Time Adj
+17.1
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-52.7
Final Difference
36.0
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
5
13
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
29
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
19
24
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
2
Rushing Yards / Game
16
12
EPA
EPA / Play
5
3
EPA / Pass
4
2
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
22
Interceptions / Game
4
7
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
32
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
2
4th Down Efficiency
24
8
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U