SF49ers
2-3
36
TBD
Lumen Field
59°F
10 mph
24
SEASeahawks
3-2
TBD
Lumen Field
59°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
13
7
13
36
Seahawks
0
3
14
7
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
483
358
Total Plays
62
73
Yards / Play
7.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
306
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
30/52(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.07
Rushing Yards
228
52
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
6.7
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.16
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-6
Sack EPA
--
-0.95
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
34
69
Penalty EPA
-4.35
-5.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,622
Home Field
+41.0
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
10
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
20
30
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
10
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
25
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
14
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U