SF49ers
5-2
15
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
026
HOUTexans
2-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
8
0
15
Texans
3
13
7
3
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
225
475
Total Plays
45
75
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.23
Passing Yards
177
--
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.49
Rushing Yards
48
157
Rush Attempts
10
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
33%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.69
-0.18
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-2.97
--
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
30
55
Penalty EPA
-2.86
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
Texans-2.5
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+148
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+70.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
+49.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
-47.7
Market Regression
+43.4
Final Difference
97.8
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-47.7
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
8
1
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
26
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Texans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
23
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
31
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U