SF49ers
2-0
13
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
024
MINVikings
1-1
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
10
0
13
Vikings
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
344
Total Plays
58
76
Yards / Play
4.8
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.09
Passing Yards
191
--
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.00
+0.36
Rushing Yards
89
146
Rush Attempts
20
41
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-10.58
-6.27
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-5.14
--
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-5.19
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model63.4%
Spread Pick
Vikings+7.0
Expected Value
+15.6%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-31
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-95.5
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
1
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
30
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
8
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
21
14
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
17
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U