CHIBears
7-2
7
TBD
Candlestick Park
64°F
12 mph
32
SF49ers
6-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
64°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
0
7
49ers
10
10
7
3
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
143
353
Total Plays
56
54
Yards / Play
2.6
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.24
Passing Yards
58
232
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.53
+0.51
Rushing Yards
85
121
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.32
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-49
-11
Sack EPA
-8.40
-2.25
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
55
50
Penalty EPA
-5.59
-4.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-60.8
Home QB Adjustment
-26.8
Away QB Adjustment
+34.0
Market Regression
-23.6
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+34.0
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-26.8
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
3
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
8
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
18
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
18
19
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
22
27
49ers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
8
Interceptions / Game
2
1
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
26
RZ Efficiency
16
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-3-1
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U