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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ broncos week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
0-1
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
3 mph
14
DENBroncos
0-1
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
6
7
3
16
Broncos
3
0
0
11
14

Spread

DEN logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
273
374
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
284
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
35/51(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.16
Rushing Yards
153
90
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.07
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.45
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
65
81
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-9.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+68.7
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-24.4
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
10/28
2.7
68
11/04
-3.5
25
11/11
11.9
98
11/18
-1.8
34
12/09
-9.1
6
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
1.2
54
12/30
1.7
59
01/06
0.9
52
09/05
-8.2
8
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
09/09
6.1
85
09/13
-1.7
35
09/23
0.7
51
09/30
5.0
80
10/07
-3.9
22
10/14
1.0
53
10/21
2.2
64
10/28
-5.7
14
11/04
-2.6
31
09/09
-0.7
48

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bears logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16

EPA

EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
29
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Broncos logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9

EPA

EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
18
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
27
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
12
W
W
O
11/18
5
W
W
O
11/22
7
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
9
W
W
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
5
W
W
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
0-9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-7
L
W
P
11/04
-2
L
L
U
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
U
12/15
-1
L
L
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/09
-8
L
L
U