CHIBears
0-1
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
3 mph
14
DENBroncos
0-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
87°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
6
7
3
16
Broncos
3
0
0
11
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
374
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
284
Comp/Att
16/27(59%)
35/51(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.16
Rushing Yards
153
90
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
27
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.07
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
--
-2.45
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
65
81
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-9.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-20.5
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
29
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
28
15
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
31
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
24
6
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
0-9-1
O/U