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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ browns week 3, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
1-1
6
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
22 mph
26
CLEBrowns
1-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
70°F
22 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
0
3
0
6
Browns
0
10
3
13
26

Spread

CLE logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
47
418
Total Plays
42
78
Yards / Play
1.1
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.02
Passing Yards
1
203
Comp/Att
6/20(30%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
0.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
-1.09
-0.07
Rushing Yards
46
215
Rush Attempts
13
42
Yards / Rush
3.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.28
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
6
26
Passing 1st downs
2
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
9%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
9
5
Sack Yards
-67
-43
Sack EPA
-16.67
-12.78
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
44
98
Penalty EPA
-5.90
-10.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+23.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-20.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
174.4
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-20.8
No recent game data available
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
11/29
-0.7
40
12/06
9.2
95
12/14
6.8
87
12/20
7.2
89
12/27
-7.3
7
01/03
1.8
57
01/10
7.3
90
01/17
-2.3
28
09/12
-0.1
53
09/19
-0.1
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Bears logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
21
EPA / Pass
30
11
EPA / Rush
18
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
28
27
RZ Efficiency
30
28
Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Browns logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
4
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
30
11
RZ Efficiency
12
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-16
L
L
O
12/06
-4
L
L
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
6
W
W
O
12/27
24
W
W
O
01/03
-19
L
L
O
01/10
-12
L
L
U
09/12
-20
L
L
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
2
W
L
O
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/14
-5
L
L
O
12/20
14
W
W
U
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
2
W
L
O
01/10
11
W
W
O
01/17
-5
L
W
U
09/12
-4
L
W
O
09/19
10
W
L
O