CHIBears
5-8
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
15 mph
20
CLEBrowns
8-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
4
0
11
Browns
0
7
0
13
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
377
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
3.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.34
Passing Yards
148
348
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.34
Rushing Yards
88
29
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
3.3
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
22%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.17
-16.22
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-7.69
-7.65
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
19
48
Penalty EPA
-2.26
-4.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
Browns-2.5
Expected Value
+14.4%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
101.6
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.9
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
3
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
28
18
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
26
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
15
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U