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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ browns week 15, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
5-8
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
15 mph
20
CLEBrowns
8-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
45°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
4
0
11
Browns
0
7
0
13
20

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
236
377
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
3.4
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.34
Passing Yards
148
348
Comp/Att
19/40(48%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.34
Rushing Yards
88
29
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
3.3
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
22%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.17
-16.22
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-18
-31
Sack EPA
-7.69
-7.65
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
19
48
Penalty EPA
-2.26
-4.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.4%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+53.9
Base HFA
+45.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
102.5
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.0
Value
Ptile
01/01
-8.3
5
09/10
-0.6
45
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-6.5
12
10/01
7.1
91
10/05
5.7
84
10/15
-8.7
6
11/19
3.3
72
11/27
1.1
56
12/10
1.7
60
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Value
Ptile
10/18
-10.4
3
11/09
4.7
77
11/22
-3.3
23
11/21
1.3
63
09/11
-1.5
43
09/18
6.5
90
09/25
-8.5
5
01/08
-4.1
23
12/03
-2.0
35
12/10
1.2
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Browns Defense
Bears logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10

EPA

EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
3
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
14
32
Browns Offense vs Bears Defense
Browns logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
12
19
Yards / Game
16
12
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1

EPA

EPA / Play
28
8
EPA / Pass
28
18
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
26
26
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
15
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-3
L
P
O
10/05
20
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
10/29
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-7
L
W
U
11/09
3
W
P
U
11/19
-5
L
W
O
11/27
2
W
W
U
12/10
15
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/26
-17
L
L
O
12/03
-17
L
L
O
12/10
4
W
W
O