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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ cowboys week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-1
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
18
DALCowboys
2-1
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
4
8
10
22
Cowboys
0
7
3
8
18

Spread

CHI logo
+3

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
360
432
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
6.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.16
Passing Yards
267
391
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
40/54(74%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.14
Rushing Yards
93
41
Rush Attempts
28
14
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
14
24
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-27.64
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-5.72
-2.34
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
25
10
Penalty EPA
-1.80
-1.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Value
Ptile
10/02
-6.1
13
10/10
2.2
67
10/16
4.9
81
10/23
-5.1
18
11/07
3.2
73
11/13
-3.8
26
11/20
5.3
83
09/09
1.2
57
09/13
-17.7
0
09/23
-4.6
20
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
11/20
2.5
69
11/24
-0.4
49
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
6.4
87
12/17
7.2
91
12/24
-5.3
17
01/01
0.0
52
09/05
5.5
84
09/16
-0.1
49
09/23
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Bears logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
18
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
22
19
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Cowboys logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7

EPA

EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
24
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
8
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
20
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
11
W
W
O
11/27
-5
L
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-24
L
L
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/23
17
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
3
W
L
O
11/24
1
W
L
U
12/04
-6
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/23
6
W
L
U