CHIBears
2-1
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
018
DALCowboys
2-1
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
4
8
10
22
Cowboys
0
7
3
8
18
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
432
Total Plays
54
69
Yards / Play
6.7
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.16
Passing Yards
267
391
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
40/54(74%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.66
-0.14
Rushing Yards
93
41
Rush Attempts
28
14
Yards / Rush
3.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
26
Passing 1st downs
14
24
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
5
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
-27.64
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-5.72
-2.34
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
25
10
Penalty EPA
-1.80
-1.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+66
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,544
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-12.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
28
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
18
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
13
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
22
19
Cowboys Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7
EPA
EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
10
1
EPA / Rush
24
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
8
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U